News has broken this morning that the Toronto Raptors and New Orleans Hornets have agreed to a five-player deal that would see them send point guard Jarrett Jack, forward David Andersen and everyone's favourite benchwarmer Marcus Banks to the New Orleans Hornets in exchange for one-time explosive sharpshooter Peja Stojakovic and young point guard Jerryd Bayless.
Imagine yourself as the general manager of an NBA basketball team. There are only 12 active players on your roster, many of whom are role players that, really, can be considered interchangeable with role players from another team. One would hope then, that in any trade to be explored, you would desperately want to acquire the best player in the deal, or at the very least, the player with the most potential. In this deal, that player is Jerryd Bayless. By targeting Bayless, Raptors GM Bryan Colangelo is going after a 22-year old (11th overall in 2008) who hasn't really been given the chance to prove himself two seasons and 11 games into his NBA career. With this deal, that is definitely about to change.
Bayless doesn't exactly fit the mold of today's "pass-first" point guard. His first instinct is to shoot the ball, which doesn't seem to make him much different than Jarrett Jack. He isn't the most efficient scorer either, a career 39.7% shooter from the field and 29.3% shooter from long range. Those numbers aren't exactly encouraging for a shoot-first floor general. However, Bayless has proved that he has the ability to fill it up when needed. In only 17 mpg last season, he averaged 8.5 points. Factor that with the 28 mpg he's likely to see with the Raptors, and Bayless should now average over 14 ppg. All hypotheticals of course and there are a lot of other factors in play such as team chemistry, coaching, etc. But 14 ppg from a 22 year old with unknown potential? Sure beats 10 ppg from a 28-year old with a ceiling.
Jarrett Jack's shooting touch seems to have disappeared this season. He is hitting just 39.3% of his field goals, including 17% of his threes for 10.8 ppg. And as his shooting numbers have dropped, his assist average has fallen, albeit marginally, from 5.0 to 4.5 apg.
Bayless and Jack appear to be similar players. But the main difference between the two is their age and potential. While Bayless is 22 years of age and largely unproven, Jack is 28 and is in his sixth season in the league. He'll provide his team on most nights with 10-12 ppg, 3-5 assists, and 3 boards. What Jarrett Jack brings to the table is no longer a secret. The Raptors will miss Jarrett Jack's veteran presence and leadership, but Bayless is an exciting young player that will be given every opportunity to succeed in Toronto.
The other parts of this deal are mostly money-related. Peja Stojakovic and Marcus Banks' contracts are both expiring, but the Raptors seem to be getting the better of that trade off. Peja's contract is worth almost $15 million dollars, while Marcus Banks contract sits at $4.7 million. This affords the Raptors tons of salary cap space going into next season's draft and free agency period. In terms of ability, Peja is one of the best three point shooters of our generation. But now in his 13th season, he was buried on the bench in NO, playing only 15 minutes a night, and seems destined to come off the bench for the Raptors.
The only lasting concern about this deal is the reputation that GM Bryan Colangelo has for acquiring players and then flipping them to other teams. Jermaine O'neal, Shawn Marion, Hedo Turkoglu, even Jarrett Jack and now David Andersen are part of a growing list of players whom Colangelo has signed as free agents, or traded for, only to let them walk or package them off in a deal less than two seasons later. One has to wonder, are free agents going to want to play for a general manager who is notorious for signing players, letting them become comfortable in the city, and then sending them elsewhere? It is a legitimate concern that, hopefully, future free agents don't pick up on.
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