Dissecting the Lawrie deal

Ever since Alex Anthopoulos took over as General Manager of the Blue Jays in October of 2009, excitement surrounding the organization hasn't been hard to come by.  From his first day at the helm, Anthopoulos has been focused on making his vision of this Blue Jays team a reality.  His vision has resulted in plenty of moves and plenty of fun for Blue Jays fans.  

Anthopoulos made a huge leap towards fulfilling his vision on Monday when he traded the Blue Jays 2010 opening day starter Shaun Marcum for Canadian prospect Brett Lawrie.  The 20-year old Lawrie, a former first round pick (16th overall) was considered the Brewers top prospect.  In 2010, Lawrie hit .285 with eight homers, 65 RBIs and 30 stolen bases in 135 games for AA-Huntsville.  Marcum on the other hand, returned from missing all of 2009 with Tommy John surgery to go 13-8, with a 3.64 earned run average in 31 starts.  At first glance, one might be puzzled as to why the Blue Jays would trade a top-2 level starter, who's only 29-years old, for a hitting prospect.  But when you look beneath the surface, this trade fits perfectly into Anthopoulos' plans.

Anthopoulos is an outspoken personality.  If you've listened to him in an interview, chances are you know how vital it is for him to load up the Blue Jays farm system with high-ceiling prospects to fill the Blue Jays lineup for years to come.  That desire for young talent was crucial in deciding to make this deal.  Before the Brewers took Lawrie one spot ahead of the Blue Jays in 2008, Anthopoulos had his eye on the kid from Langley, B.C.  That's because Lawrie perfectly fits the bill of a young position player with a high ceiling.  Lawrie is a five-tool player.  Although some will complain that he isn't quick enough to play second base, that is the position he has played in the minor leagues.  He has also played catcher in the past and can play the outfield if needed.  His bat is so potent, and his defense capable enough, that when he's "ready", he will have no trouble becoming a mainstay in the Blue Jays lineup.  Five-tool position players are very rare.  Anthopoulos saw the opportunity to acquire one and grabbed hold of it.

One of the main ways Anthopoulos has gone about developing young talent has been through the Blue Jays pitching staff.  Romero, Cecil, Morrow, Drabek, Rzepcynski, Litsch, Zach Stewart (minors), Brad Mills (minors) and Chad Jenkins (minors) have given the Jays plenty of starting rotation options for now and further down the road.  Marcum was only under contract for the next two seasons, and even if he resigned, that would have meant fewer innings for the Jays top pitching prospects who, in two years, should be able to contribute well to the starting rotation.  

For the 2011 season, it seems feasible that one of Rzepcynski, Litsch, Mills or Stewart (Jenkins probably isn't ready yet) should be able to adequately perform as the fifth man in the rotation.  Given until 2012, one of those pitchers should be able to assume their spot in the rotation, not as a stop-gap measure, but rather as a regular starter.  After all, Anthopoulos has said on numerous occasions that his intention is to compete in 2012 and beyond.  The Blue Jays starting rotation will be a seasoned group by then.  Oh, and a talented young position player by the name of Brett Lawrie should also be contributing to the cause by 2012.  The Jays pitching depth and need for additional high-ceiling positional players made this trade a necessary and welcome deal.

Some believe that this trade will lead to more moves by Anthopoulos.  Perhaps AA was freeing up a spot in the rotation by trading away Marcum.  One of the names thrown around to fill his spot has been Royals ace and 2008 Cy Young winner Zack Greinke.  Greinke had previously had the Blue Jays on his no-trade list, but according to reports, has tossed that list because he is now "willing to go anywhere".  AA apparently inquired into Greinke's availability, and the Royals are said to want Kyle Drabek and Travis Snider, as well as one or two other prospects in return for the ace.  This asking price is way too high.

Drabek was the main blue-chip prospect coming back in return in the Roy Halladay deal.  The Blue Jays have Drabek under contract for the next five seasons.  There is no guarantee as to how his career will turn out, but all signs point to him being at the very least a solid starting pitcher, if not an ace.  Greinke's contract is up in only two seasons.  It seems unrealistic to believe Greinke would resign with the Blue Jays, especially after having the team on his no-trade list.  So, by making this deal, the Blue Jays would be losing three seasons worth of high-quality pitching.  And in wanting his team to compete in 2012 and beyond, losing those three seasons goes completely against Anthopolous' vision.

So while it's debatable as to whether a straight-up deal of Drabek for Greinke would be beneficial for the Jays, the addition of Travis Snider would render this deal a complete failure for the Jays.  Snider remains as the Jays best hitting prospect.  Though he has struggled so far in his major league career, he has yet to receive a full season of at-bats.  Fans must not forget that prior to seeing him struggle, Snider was projected to hit 25+ home runs a year.  His potential remains there.  And in baseball, patience is often rewarded.  

Anthopoulos synapses are always firing.  His offseason is probably not finished.  But it is clear with the Lawrie deal, that Anthopoulos wants to build a contender for many years to come.  Surely, sacrificing his long-term prized prospects for a pitcher only under contract for the next two years would be a big mistake.