People ask me why I take the time to organize an NCAA tournament pool every year; one that, at this point, over 145 people have joined for two years in a row. Here's what I tell them: "Firstly, it is without question March Madness is the most exciting time of the year. If you don't believe that, you are lying to yourself. Secondly, it gives me the opportunity to keep in touch with old friends, who have to find a way to forward me the money before the tournament starts. Every single conversation I have had with an old friend goes something like this:
Old Friend: "Long time man."
Me: "Yeah, how are things?"
Old Friend: "Good…So, who you liking in the tourney this year?"
Me: "Notre Dame or Duke" This is a complete farce. I don't think either of these teams is going to win the tournament. However, people seem to think I know what I'm talking about because I've been running a pool for four years. So, I knowingly steer them in what I believe to be the wrong direction. This is not bush league. It's more like gamesmanship.
In a tourney pool such as this, you must use every means available to you to gain a leg up on your competition. Not even the Oracle from the Matrix could foresee the results of an NCAA Tournament. But with that said, it is not a complete crapshoot. There are some crucial guidelines that you must utilize in order to keep yourself in the running up until the final weekend. Here is my list of things to keep in mind before etching your bracket in stone:
1. Avoid the aura surrounding top seeds.
In four straight years, a number one seed has cut down the nets in early April. If you choose a number one seed to win, you have a decent shot at winning your pool. But upon further examination, save for 2008, number one seeds haven't had such an easy road to the Final Four. Last year, Duke was the only number one seed to make it. In 2006, not a single number one seed got there. In 2004, Duke was the only number one seed to make it again.
Choosing a number one seed to win the tournament is safe. It's easy. It's like saying Halle Berry looked the best on Oscars night. But looking back days later, after you really think about it, Mila Kunis looked much better. Hence, be weary of the up and comers.
2. Don't fall in love with the overhyped underdogs.
"Who will be this year's Gonzaga?" Who cares. These are all good teams. That is why they made it to the tournament. Stop falling in love with underdogs.
Example 1: Think Ivan Drago v. Rocky Balboa in Rocky IV. Let's face it. The big Russian never really had a chance. His strength was impressive, but he was too overhyped. All he did pre-Rocky fight was kill Apollo Creed, who has washed up anyway. Drago was the real underdog. And underdogs will make you look like a genius during the game (he pummelled Rocky in the first few rounds), but when they inevitably lose, you just look silly for choosing them to win in the first place. (my theory is that the Russian crowd started cheering for Rocky because they didn't want to look stupid cheering for the overhyped Drago).
Example 2: Jamaican Bobsled Team. The true underdog. An incredibly valiant effort at the 1988 Calgary Olympics, but there was never any chance they were going to win a medal. But it was "cool" to like them. It was exciting. Think about the commentators in Cool Runnings flipping out at how good the Jamaicans were and how they were right in contention. What happened on the third day? They flipped their sled. Point, exactly.
3. Don't put too much stock in Yahoo's 'user picks'.
Everyone looks at user picks. It makes you feel more comfortable choosing a winner, knowing that if you're wrong, 67% of the people were wrong also. It's like getting onto an airplane when they first call for you to board. Everyone is doing it, so why not? But in reality, the smart move is to wait until the final boarding call. That way you won't have to wait in the freakin' tunnel for 20 minutes waiting for grandma and grandpa to load their bags in the overhead compartments. Be innovative. Go against the grain. Don't be a follower.
4. Choosing seeds 1-5 to make it to the Final Four is defensible. Anything after the fifth seed, you look like you got your girlfriend to choose which colour jerseys she likes better. Don't do it. It's not cool.
5. Don't pick the number 15 seed to upset the number 2 seed.
I was actually discussing this possibility with my good, good pal Josh Howard. I wanted to go out on a limb and pick number 2 San Diego State to be ousted in the first round. Josh responded with: "If you're banking on a 15 seed upsetting a 2, you're probably the same guy who thinks Donald Trump is going to win the next American Presidential Election. Yeah, they'd both be hilarious and a lot of people would end up screwed over, but both outcomes are about as unlikely as Justin Bieber growing facial hair in the next six months." Well played, Jho.
6. Don't boast to your friends that you love your bracket and this year is "your year".
Picking a bracket anticipating that you're going to win is like cheering for the Leafs/Raptors/Jays to win a championship. Every year you start with optimism. By the second weekend, you realize…"what the hell was I thinking?"
7. Be proud when it's all said and done. Especially...
If you pick two of the final four teams successfully, you've done well. Go buy yourself a nice steak dinner at the Keg.
If you chose three right, walk around with your head held high. For an entire year. And when your boys insult you for being weirdly cocky, remind them that you picked three of the four final four teams correctly. They'll know what's up.
And lastly, if you pick all four final four teams correctly, do the following:
a. Go buy a lottery ticket
b. More importantly, go out to the local bar/club on the Thursday/Friday/Saturday before the Final Four games. Your guy friends will all be congratulating you at the bar, fawning over you actually. This will make you 108% more likely to take home the girl of your dreams. She will see all of the attention you are getting and fall weak at the knees. Girls love the centre of attention. Fact.
BUT, if you picked all four number one seeds, and that's how it turns out (as it did in 2008), as Bill Simmons would say about Kareem-Abdul Jabbar, you're just a "ninny".
8. Bracket is NOT all about winning. Charlie Sheen was wrong. It's about having fun.
Good ol' Charlie was just fired from Two and a Half Men. He's about as broken as the ankles of Kemba Walker's latest victim. Hence, he's probably not the guy I'd want to be taking advice from.
Enjoy the tournament, old friends.
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