Dissecting the Lawrie deal

Ever since Alex Anthopoulos took over as General Manager of the Blue Jays in October of 2009, excitement surrounding the organization hasn't been hard to come by.  From his first day at the helm, Anthopoulos has been focused on making his vision of this Blue Jays team a reality.  His vision has resulted in plenty of moves and plenty of fun for Blue Jays fans.  

Anthopoulos made a huge leap towards fulfilling his vision on Monday when he traded the Blue Jays 2010 opening day starter Shaun Marcum for Canadian prospect Brett Lawrie.  The 20-year old Lawrie, a former first round pick (16th overall) was considered the Brewers top prospect.  In 2010, Lawrie hit .285 with eight homers, 65 RBIs and 30 stolen bases in 135 games for AA-Huntsville.  Marcum on the other hand, returned from missing all of 2009 with Tommy John surgery to go 13-8, with a 3.64 earned run average in 31 starts.  At first glance, one might be puzzled as to why the Blue Jays would trade a top-2 level starter, who's only 29-years old, for a hitting prospect.  But when you look beneath the surface, this trade fits perfectly into Anthopoulos' plans.

Anthopoulos is an outspoken personality.  If you've listened to him in an interview, chances are you know how vital it is for him to load up the Blue Jays farm system with high-ceiling prospects to fill the Blue Jays lineup for years to come.  That desire for young talent was crucial in deciding to make this deal.  Before the Brewers took Lawrie one spot ahead of the Blue Jays in 2008, Anthopoulos had his eye on the kid from Langley, B.C.  That's because Lawrie perfectly fits the bill of a young position player with a high ceiling.  Lawrie is a five-tool player.  Although some will complain that he isn't quick enough to play second base, that is the position he has played in the minor leagues.  He has also played catcher in the past and can play the outfield if needed.  His bat is so potent, and his defense capable enough, that when he's "ready", he will have no trouble becoming a mainstay in the Blue Jays lineup.  Five-tool position players are very rare.  Anthopoulos saw the opportunity to acquire one and grabbed hold of it.

One of the main ways Anthopoulos has gone about developing young talent has been through the Blue Jays pitching staff.  Romero, Cecil, Morrow, Drabek, Rzepcynski, Litsch, Zach Stewart (minors), Brad Mills (minors) and Chad Jenkins (minors) have given the Jays plenty of starting rotation options for now and further down the road.  Marcum was only under contract for the next two seasons, and even if he resigned, that would have meant fewer innings for the Jays top pitching prospects who, in two years, should be able to contribute well to the starting rotation.  

For the 2011 season, it seems feasible that one of Rzepcynski, Litsch, Mills or Stewart (Jenkins probably isn't ready yet) should be able to adequately perform as the fifth man in the rotation.  Given until 2012, one of those pitchers should be able to assume their spot in the rotation, not as a stop-gap measure, but rather as a regular starter.  After all, Anthopoulos has said on numerous occasions that his intention is to compete in 2012 and beyond.  The Blue Jays starting rotation will be a seasoned group by then.  Oh, and a talented young position player by the name of Brett Lawrie should also be contributing to the cause by 2012.  The Jays pitching depth and need for additional high-ceiling positional players made this trade a necessary and welcome deal.

Some believe that this trade will lead to more moves by Anthopoulos.  Perhaps AA was freeing up a spot in the rotation by trading away Marcum.  One of the names thrown around to fill his spot has been Royals ace and 2008 Cy Young winner Zack Greinke.  Greinke had previously had the Blue Jays on his no-trade list, but according to reports, has tossed that list because he is now "willing to go anywhere".  AA apparently inquired into Greinke's availability, and the Royals are said to want Kyle Drabek and Travis Snider, as well as one or two other prospects in return for the ace.  This asking price is way too high.

Drabek was the main blue-chip prospect coming back in return in the Roy Halladay deal.  The Blue Jays have Drabek under contract for the next five seasons.  There is no guarantee as to how his career will turn out, but all signs point to him being at the very least a solid starting pitcher, if not an ace.  Greinke's contract is up in only two seasons.  It seems unrealistic to believe Greinke would resign with the Blue Jays, especially after having the team on his no-trade list.  So, by making this deal, the Blue Jays would be losing three seasons worth of high-quality pitching.  And in wanting his team to compete in 2012 and beyond, losing those three seasons goes completely against Anthopolous' vision.

So while it's debatable as to whether a straight-up deal of Drabek for Greinke would be beneficial for the Jays, the addition of Travis Snider would render this deal a complete failure for the Jays.  Snider remains as the Jays best hitting prospect.  Though he has struggled so far in his major league career, he has yet to receive a full season of at-bats.  Fans must not forget that prior to seeing him struggle, Snider was projected to hit 25+ home runs a year.  His potential remains there.  And in baseball, patience is often rewarded.  

Anthopoulos synapses are always firing.  His offseason is probably not finished.  But it is clear with the Lawrie deal, that Anthopoulos wants to build a contender for many years to come.  Surely, sacrificing his long-term prized prospects for a pitcher only under contract for the next two years would be a big mistake.

Skinner leads NHL rookie class

With the 2010-2011 NHL campaign more than a quarter of the way through, here's a look at six highly-touted rookies and their progress after nearly two months in the pros.

Taylor Hall: 2010 stats (6 G, 12 P, -5)

While Hall has yet to put up the type of eye-popping numbers one might expect from the top overall pick, he still seems to do something every night to justify why he was the first player taken off the board on draft night. Hall's combination of speed, strength and hands is second to none among rookies and it has to be assumed that with his talent level, the production will come at some point. Especially since the Edmonton Oilers, who are clearly in rebuilding mode, are giving Hall more than enough ice-time to help with his development (17:11 minutes per game), including significant time on the power play. Like other first overall picks in recent years, (Steven Stamkos being the most recent example), once Hall fully understands the NHL game, his talent should lead to more production.

Jeff Skinner: 2010 stats: (7 G, 19 P, -4)

The main concern with Skinner heading into the 2010 NHL Entry Draft was his height. Listed at 5'10", several NHL scouts questioned how Skinner's lack of size would impact his play at the pro level. So far, the 10th overall pick has done everything to prove that skill, not size, should be considered a player's most valuable asset. Skinner leads all rookies in assists (12) and points (19), and also sits tied for second in points on the Carolina Hurricanes, behind only Eric Staal. He has shown impressive offensive flair, especially around the net where his soft hands and knack for finding loose pucks have resulted in his consistent production. To be sure, Skinner will experience the ups and downs of a typical rookie campaign, but his offensive talent should keep him near the top of the Calder Trophy race for the rest of the season.

Tyler Ennis: 2010 stats (5 G, 11 P, +2)

A great deal was expected of the 21-year-old heading into this season, especially after he put up nine points in 10 games with the Buffalo Sabres last year, including a team-leading four points in the playoffs. Ennis got off to a solid start this season, picking up four points in his first three games, but has since cooled off, going pointless over his last six. Ennis is a crafty setup man who has a tendency to play on the perimeter. For Ennis to reach his full potential, he will have to establish a stronger desire to go to the net. If that happens this year, Ennis could become the second Sabre in as many years to bring the Calder Trophy to Buffalo.

Logan Couture: 2010 stats (8 G, 13 P, 0)

Couture is the seasoned veteran of this rookie class. He was drafted ninth overall in 2007 by the San Jose Sharks and played in 25 games in 09-10. Had he played one more game, Couture would not have been considered a rookie for this season. But he is, and through a quarter of the season, it is Couture who leads all rookies with eight goals. Couture has found a home on the Sharks second line alongside Joe Pavelski and Ryane Clowe. While he has slowed over his last five games, picking up just one assist, Couture is surrounded with enough talent that he should be able to maintain his solid offensive production.

P.K. Subban: 2010 stats (1 G, 9 P, +5)

Subban quickly became a fan favorite in Montreal after his outstanding postseason performance last year in which he tallied eight points in 14 games. This season, the Rexdale, Ontario native continues to showcase the exciting style of play that endeared him to Canadiens fans, but he has also proven to be a reliable defenseman. He is third amongst rookies in ice-time (20:48 MPG) and sees action on both the power play and the penalty kill. Subban is blossoming into a solid all-around defender, and with Canadiens blueliner Andrei Markov out for the next six months, Subban's continued maturity will help ease the pain felt by Markov's void.

Tyler Seguin: 2010 stats (5 G, 9 P, 0)

The Bruins have opted to take it slow with Seguin, the second overall pick in the 2010 entry draft. He's averaging 12:40 of ice-time per game, putting him among the bottom six in minutes for the Bruins. With center Marc Savard on the mend, Seguin doesn't figure to see his ice-time increase anytime soon. Nonetheless, Seguin has made the most of his opportunities so far. His five goals puts him in a fourth-place tie among all rookies. If Seguin's ice-time increases, so will his production. Unfortunately, with the wealth of talent on the Bruins roster, fans might have to wait until the 2011-12 season to see what the youngster is really made of.

Raptors confidence continues to grow with latest win

It’s safe to say that nobody outside of the Raptors' locker room predicted this team would win four straight games at any point this season.  After all, the club is supposed to be in rebuilding mode. 

Yet once the horn sounded on Wednesday night at the Air Canada Centre, the Raptors had won their fourth straight game, a 106-90 thrashing of the Philadelphia 76ers. 

Right from opening tip-off, there was a certain positive aura surrounding the Raptors. Fans in the building were eagerly anticipating the debuts of guard Jerryd Bayless and forward Peja Stojakovic, who came over from New Orleans on the weekend, and Toronto could smell blood, a result of the Sixers lowly 3-11 record.

And like they’ve been doing lately, the Raptors took control of the game by getting their big man Andrea Bargnani involved early, allowing him to get a feel for the game.  He didn't disappoint, showcasing the fluidity and touch that has become his trademark early in the 2010-11 season, one in which he’s averaging a career-high in points scored per game at 21.7. 

Without the services of Elton Brand due to a suspension, the Sixers stuck lanky-forward Thaddeus Young on the Raptors center.  Early on, Bargnani backed him down and used his newly-developed arsenal of post moves to score.  Then when Young sagged off, the seven-footer showed his knack for knocking down the long-range jumpers.  Bargnani used this inside-outside combination to terrorize the Sixers’ defense for 24 points on 8/16 shooting from the field.  

It’s becoming clear that Bargani is getting more comfortable in his role as the go to guy. Getting him touches early on in ball games has been a key component in building his confidence and efficiency on the court this season. The Italian is finally exhibiting the maturation that Raptor's fans have been expecting for years, but perhaps could have only arisen after the departure of Chris Bosh.

Opening up space on the court has also helped Bargani find his stride, and the Raptors can thank forward Reggie Evans for this. His tough presence in the post and his super-human rebounding ability has helped Bargani play off the ball and establish an offensive rhythm. 

It’s Evans who’s also injecting the team with passion and swagger, two intangibles that have been lacking in Toronto. After the November 16^th loss to the Washington Wizards, he spoke up to the media regarding his team’s lack of effort and poor attitude, and they responded with four impressive wins in a row.  

Evans came into Wednesday night's contest ranked fourth in the NBA in rebounding with 11.8 per-game.  |He pulled down ten rebounds in the first quarter alone, en route to a career-high 22 in the game.  He also chipped in with 12 points for his first double double of the season. While his offense won't be there on every night, the second chance opportunities that Reggie creates with his rebounding are invaluable.  The Raptors are no longer hesitant to take jump shots and they are letting them fly in the flow of the offense. If the shots don't drop, there is always the chance that Reggie will grab the offensive board and keep the possession going.

What about the new guys?  

Nobody really knew what to expect from the 22-year old Bayless, a shoot-first point guard who in his two previous stops in the NBA, hadn’t really been given a fair opportunity.  

Similarly, nobody knew what to expect from Stojakovic, one of the best three-point shooters in NBA history, but well past his prime. However, the questions surrounding the two newcomers did little to discourage them from contributing to the winning cause on Wednesday night.  

Bayless showed off his quickness, defensive tenacity and his smooth shooting stroke, while going a perfect 3-of-3 from behind the arc and finishing with 13 points in only 15 minutes of action. While Stojakovic dropped a quick 7 points in only six minutes of action.

Hopefully, as Bayless continues to get comfortable in head coach Jay triano’s offense, he will be given more minutes, and a clearer picture will develop of how he might fit into the Raptors long-term plans.

With regards to Peja Stojakovic's ability, if he remains with the Raptors for the rest of the season, he will be a valuable three-point threat. The Raptors are currently the worst three-point shooting team in the NBA and Stojakovic will help turn that around. He says he’s healthy and ready to go, and if he can prove to be consistent, might carve out a niche role with the club from behind the arc.

The current winning streak has been fun for Raptor fans, but it’s important to keep things in perspective.  The Raptors were picked by just about everybody to finish last in the Eastern Conference, if not the NBA.  Heck, they're even ranked last in the NBA 2K11 video game!

But there are certain positives that have emerged during this streak; positives that cannot be denied.  With every win, their confidence is getting stronger and their passion more evident.  If the recent roster moves can prove successful, it is not inconceivable that the 2010-2011 Raptors could surprise some people; that is if they haven't already.

Raptors deal throws more youth into the mix

News has broken this morning that the Toronto Raptors and New Orleans Hornets have agreed to a five-player deal that would see them send point guard Jarrett Jack, forward David Andersen and everyone's favourite benchwarmer Marcus Banks to the New Orleans Hornets in exchange for one-time explosive sharpshooter Peja Stojakovic and young point guard Jerryd Bayless. 

Imagine yourself as the general manager of an NBA basketball team.  There are only 12 active players on your roster, many of whom are role players that, really, can be considered interchangeable with role players from another team.  One would hope then, that in any trade to be explored, you would desperately want to acquire the best player in the deal, or at the very least, the player with the most potential.  In this deal, that player is Jerryd Bayless.  By targeting Bayless, Raptors GM Bryan Colangelo is going after a 22-year old (11th overall in 2008) who hasn't really been given the chance to prove himself two seasons and 11 games into his NBA career.  With this deal, that is definitely about to change.

Bayless doesn't exactly fit the mold of today's "pass-first" point guard.  His first instinct is to shoot the ball, which doesn't seem to make him much different than Jarrett Jack.  He isn't the most efficient scorer either, a career 39.7% shooter from the field and 29.3% shooter from long range.  Those numbers aren't exactly encouraging for a shoot-first floor general.  However, Bayless has proved that he has the ability to fill it up when needed.  In only 17 mpg last season, he averaged 8.5 points.  Factor that with the 28 mpg he's likely to see with the Raptors, and Bayless should now average over 14 ppg.  All hypotheticals of course and there are a lot of other factors in play such as team chemistry, coaching, etc.  But 14 ppg from a 22 year old with unknown potential?  Sure beats 10 ppg from a 28-year old with a ceiling.

Jarrett Jack's shooting touch seems to have disappeared this season.  He is hitting just 39.3% of his field goals, including 17% of his threes for 10.8 ppg.  And as his shooting numbers have dropped, his assist average has fallen, albeit marginally, from 5.0 to 4.5 apg.

Bayless and Jack appear to be similar players.  But the main difference between the two is their age and potential.  While Bayless is 22 years of age and largely unproven, Jack is 28 and is in his sixth season in the league.  He'll provide his team on most nights with 10-12 ppg, 3-5 assists, and 3 boards.  What Jarrett Jack brings to the table is no longer a secret.  The Raptors will miss Jarrett Jack's veteran presence and leadership, but Bayless is an exciting young player that will be given every opportunity to succeed in Toronto.

The other parts of this deal are mostly money-related.  Peja Stojakovic and Marcus Banks' contracts are both expiring, but the Raptors seem to be getting the better of that trade off.  Peja's contract is worth almost $15 million dollars, while Marcus Banks contract sits at $4.7 million.  This affords the Raptors tons of salary cap space going into next season's draft and free agency period.  In terms of ability, Peja is one of the best three point shooters of our generation.  But now in his 13th season, he was buried on the bench in NO, playing only 15 minutes a night, and seems destined to come off the bench for the Raptors.

The only lasting concern about this deal is the reputation that GM Bryan Colangelo has for acquiring players and then flipping them to other teams.  Jermaine O'neal, Shawn Marion, Hedo Turkoglu, even Jarrett Jack and now David Andersen are part of a growing list of players whom Colangelo has signed as free agents, or traded for, only to let them walk or package them off in a deal less than two seasons later.  One has to wonder, are free agents going to want to play for a general manager who is notorious for signing players, letting them become comfortable in the city, and then sending them elsewhere?  It is a legitimate concern that, hopefully, future free agents don't pick up on.

Is cheering for losses 'morally justifiable'?

As the Toronto Maple Leafs and Toronto Raptors continue to struggle, therein lies a unique phenomenon; the different ways in which Toronto fans tend to react.  Supporters of the Maple Leafs cannot reach for the panic button quick enough, while Raptor fans have mostly reacted with indifference and apathy.  Why are Leaf fans stricken with incomprehensible anxieties, while Raptor fans are merely shrugging their shoulders and taking the 1-7 start for what it's worth?

Surely, it is not from a difference of expectations.  Any logical Leaf fan knows that the current roster is not going to cause serious damage.  And as for the Raptors, everybody (and I mean EVERYBODY) projected them to be this bad.  

So?  The difference in fan reaction stems from each team's prospects for the future. Once the Leafs finish near the bottom in the NHL standings, they will be handing the Boston Bruins another top first round pick.  That would likely render the Phil Kessel deal an absolute disaster.  For the Leafs, there is no saviour draft pick on the horizon.  What you see is what you get.  However, there is no doubt that the Raptors roster is going to look drastically different next year with the looming addition of a top draft pick in the 2011 NBA draft.  For the Raptors, unlike the Leafs, there is the opportunity for a quick fix.  Thus, failure by the Leafs will not be tolerated, but for the Raptors, losses seem to be manageable.

This begs the question.  Is it ever justifiable as a sports fan to cheer for your team to lose?  In the situation of the Raptors, it sure is.

As we have seen, Toronto is not a desirable playing destination among NBA stars.  Vince Carter came and went, ditto for Chris Bosh and Hedo Turkoglu (not really a star, but still) left on bad terms.  After all that these athletes have said about the city, and their lack of understanding about how dynamic the city of Toronto really is, there are few options for the Raptors to improve.  It seems the only way is through the NBA draft.  And so while it can be considered offensive to the current players on the Raptors roster to cheer for losses, a true FAN will understand the dire situation that faces the franchise.  The only way for the Raptors to get better is for the losses to mount.  At least this way, the Raps can lock up a stud draft pick for two years and have the option in the third and fourth year to keep the player around.

This idea does not suggest that one should go to the Raptor home games and cheer against them.  That is crude and disrespectful to the players' whose job is still to try and win basketball games.  Simply be mindful of the fact that losses are the best way for the Toronto Raptors to improve and know that it is absolutely justifiable to let yourself be overcome with excitement if/when the Raptors finish with the worst record in the NBA.

Bautista's Convincing Case for MVP

A funny thing happened in 2003.  For the first time, probably since the back to back world series championships in 1992 and 1993, fans of the Toronto Blue Jays had something, more importantly, someone to be proud of. That player was the ace of the Blue Jays staff, Roy “Doc” Halladay.  

Halladay was the face of the franchise.  A true class act that seemed to epitomize the Canadian way.  It was in 2003 that Halladay walked away with the American League Cy Young Award.  Seven years later, Blue Jays fans have plenty of reasons to get behind their new classy leader, Jose Bautista, as he vies for another major piece of individual hardware.  This time, the AL MVP award.

Blue Jays outfielder/third baseman Jose Bautista deserves to be American League MVP.  The true definition of the MVP award is surely open to interpretation.  Should it matter if the player comes from a playoff team?  Are there a certain number of wins that a team should attain in order for their best player to qualify for the award?  These are appropriate questions that, to this day, still have not been answered.  MVP’s are voted for based on the personal preferences of the media members who vote.  However, it seems that the most prudential way of selecting the winner of the award should come from identifying the player who best epitomizes “value” to his team.  After all, the award is named for the Most Valuable Player. Here’s another way of looking at it, if said player is removed from his teams’ lineup, will the void left be too gaping to fill?  And will it be greater than the void left by the other MVP candidates? Neither one of these definitions proves that the appearance of the team in the postseason should have any bearing on whether a player wins the award.  This does not always seem to be the case in the minds of the voters, but for all-intensive purposes, this article shall approach the MVP award in its true sense, that of value.  And if the discussion is who is the most valuable player in the league, that player is Jose Bautista.

Nobody picked the Toronto Blue Jays to be where they were this season.  In fact, most baseball pundits had the “Doc-less” Jays finishing well below the .500 mark.  But in 2010, the Blue Jays finished the season at 85-77.  Still in fourth place in the division, but substantially better than anybody could have imagined them being.  The Blue Jays themselves were a macrocosm of their leader, Jose Bautista.  Nobody picked Jose Bautista to be in the running for AL MVP.  Nobody even thought Jose Bautista would hit more than 20 homeruns. He was supposed to be a stop-gap measure on a rebuilding team. But consider the following numbers: .260 avg, 54 homeruns, 124 rbis, .378 OBP.  Like his team, Bautista’s numbers were an overwhelming surprise.  He deserves the majority of the credit for leading the Jays to what can be considered a successful season.

Aside from his major league leading homerun number, Bautista has shown significant abilities that his greatest competitors for MVP have not, and that's in the field.  This is not to say Josh Hamilton isn’t a great centre fielder.  Or Robinson Cano isn’t an above average second baseman.  But Bautista didn't just excel at one position.  He did it in right field and at third base. Bautista was so versatile that he showed up at the ballpark on any given day willing to play at either position Cito Gaston felt necessary. Bautista has a plus arm for both the outfield and third base.  He has good speed.  Lost among many MLB fans is the difference in arm angle that an outfielder uses versus that of an infielder.  An outfielder throws straight overhand, trying to generate as much power with the body.  However an infielder will use more of a three-quarters release in an attempt to be more accurate.  Therefore, playing these two positions, Bautista was forced to switch his arm angle all the time.  Bautista only committed four errors at third base all year. He had only six in the outfield.  By comparison, Josh Hamilton had eight in centre field and he missed the Rangers last 20 games.  Perhaps Bautista’s biggest competitor for MVP, Miguel Cabrera, made 13 errors in 147 games at first base!  And neither Hamilton nor Cabrera had to deal with the intricacies of switching between the infield and the outfield.

When thinking of reasons why Bautista should not win MVP, most people will point to his batting average.  Granted, Bautista’s average this season was not close to Hamilton’s or Cabrera’s.  Bautista’s finished at .260, while Hamilton’s was at a hefty .359 and Cabrera’s is at a cool .328.  But on base percentage should matter more than batting average.  The objective of baseball is to score as many runs as possible.  The more time a batter spends on base, the greater chance he will give his team to win the game.  And if one were to look at OBP instead of batting average, the numbers are much closer.  Cabrera finished at .420, Hamilton at .411 and Bautista at .378.  Not nearly as drastic as the batting average numbers.

Furthermore in his case for MVP, Jose developed into the leader of the Blue Jays.  On a team with a significant Latino core, Bautista was often the liaison between the coaching staff and the Latino players.  And as the statistical leader, Bautista easily engrained a penchant for heart, hustle and passion into the minds of his teammates.  'If Jose can hit that many homers, why can’t we?'  That seemed to be the silent motto of the Jays as they climbed toward the franchise record for homeruns in a season.  

Perhaps the greatest example of Jose’s leadership came in an August 24^th game against the Yankees.  One at bat after Bautista took Yanks starter Ivan Nova deep, Nova threw at Bautista’s head causing him to duck for cover. Bautista, visibly angry, approached the mound and the benches cleared. But no punches were thrown.  Jose is too classy for that.  He waited until his next at-bat.  And then he did what he’s been doing all season.  Hit a homerun.  He stared at the pitching mound while trotting to first base, leaving a clear message to the Yankees and to the rest of major league baseball.  Jose Bautista and the Toronto Blue Jays will not be pushed around.  Not anymore.  That type of leadership is what should epitomize an MVP.

Bautista’s case for MVP, both statistically and in the dugout is compelling.  Statistically, Bautista finished the season leading the AL in homeruns by a ridiculous 15 long bombs.  Voters should look past his apparent deficiencies in the batting average department and give the man his due.  Emotionally, Bautista energized a city in need of a leader.  The city has been devoid of one since the aforementioned “Doc” Halladay.  And while the Blue Jays were not in the playoffs this season, Bautista bringing home the MVP hardware will definitely give Blue Jays fans something to cheer about.